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The world map as we know it is about to change and Canada stands at a crossroads. It could become the 51st state of United States, or it could use this moment of crisis to emerge as a new power on the world stage.
Could the U.S. "Take Over" Canada?
Canada possesses many of the essential qualities needed to be a major global player especially an abundant natural resources and a stable political system. Yet, it lags behind rising giants like China, and India. The primary obstacle lies in its demographics: Canada simply does not have enough people to compete on the same scale.
Too Few People, Too Many Retirees
With a population of just over 40 million, Canada lacks the critical mass required to drive sustained economic expansion or project significant international influence. Unlike the U.S., with its 335 million people, or India, which adds more than Canada's entire population in new workers every few years, Canada's small labor force limits its capacity for growth.
Compounding the problem, nearly one-fifth of Canadians are already over 65, and with fertility rates well below replacement levels, the country faces a future where retirees outnumber new entrants into the workforce.
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Aging Population: Nearly 20% of Canadians are already over 65, a percentage that is expected to rise to 25% by 2050.
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Low Fertility Rate: Canada’s fertility rate is 1.43 births per woman (2023), well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.
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Labor Shortages: By 2030, it is projected that 23% of the workforce will be of retirement age, potentially leading to severe labor market imbalances.
By addressing its demographic constraints and diversifying its alliances, Canada could still position itself as a significant player in a multipolar world. The question is whether it has the ambition—and the political will—to make that leap.
Expanding Immigration and Boosting Birth Rates
Canada has one of the highest immigration rates globally, admitting over 400,000 new permanent residents annually. However, to sustain economic growth, it may need to increase its intake, particularly of skilled workers in sectors facing shortages such as healthcare, technology, and engineering.
Another Long-term strategy is to encourage higher birth rates with policies such as subsidized childcare, extended parental leave, and tax incentives for families could help reverse declining fertility trends.
The Path Forward
Canada stands at a pivotal moment. To maintain its sovereignty, economic strength, and global influence, it must take bold action. Expanding immigration is a necessary short-term solution, but long-term sustainability requires investing in policies that support population growth, workforce development, and innovation. Without strategic planning, Canada risks becoming increasingly dependent on external forces—whether economic, political, or demographic. The choice is clear: adapt and thrive, or remain stagnant and vulnerable in an ever-changing world.
